NFL Week 9 discussion

[Avocado33]

Haven't done of these for a few weeks. Lot of great games this week

Chiefs -2.5 in Germany against the Dolphins

Bengals -3 at home against Bills after being an underdog in the look-ahead line

Eagles -3 at home against Cowboys in their first meeting

Seahawks/Ravens kind of hiding in the shadows as another great game....Ravens -5.5 at home

Titans/Steelers interesting for a Thursday game (or at least I think so)....Steelers -3 at home



Any thoughts on these games or others?

 

[brendanjack]

Titans had a nice win yesterday and they showed an attack they had been lacking. I lean Tenn. Don’t like what I saw from Pitt both sides of the ball and their secondary was hurting. Tenn hopefully shows up and keeps it close.
Dallas Philly tough game tossup
Ravens yeah they should
like Miami think they steal one here
Falcons seems to easy maybe vikes win the turnovers and field positioning
Saints right the ship at home vs bears

 

[exploited17]

Eagles 1-3 ats at home in division this and last year with a slight cover over Dallas without Dak last year. 3-1 SU though.
Steelers plaing 2nd of 3 straight home games.
Steelers outgained in all 7 games.

 

[Greenbacks]

Steelers are horrible
Titans +2.5

Another horrible team laying points in the Patriots.
Commanders +3

Bengals come in as the biggest public play Sunday 66%.
Bills +2.5

Good luck

 

[Avocado33]

Very torn on Bills/Bengals

Might be good spot for Buffalo, and it's not a playoff scenario -- which helps them greatly

 

[VIEJODINOSAUR]

Deadskins just threw in the towel…Sweat and Chase Young both gone…

 

[VIEJODINOSAUR]

Raiders doing what the Bears should have done weeks ago….these two franchises are in shambles…

 

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Any opinions on Survivor contest picks this week?

Browns or Saints? Anyone else?

I do not feel that confident in anyone this week.

 

[exploited17]

Deadskins just threw in the towel…Sweat and Chase Young both gone…

Last year of his contract but he is good and only 24. Not sure why they traded him. Gotta drop some guys who make money sometimes but O line QB and pass rusher are not the spots.

 

[Avocado33]

Any opinions on Survivor contest picks this week?

Browns or Saints? Anyone else?

I do not feel that confident in anyone this week.

SaintS for me most likely

 

[Avocado33]

Cowboys Moneyline for me

Think they go into Philly and get it done

 

[Avocado33]

Bengals come in as the biggest public play Sunday 66%.
Bills +2.5

Come on Greenie

Bills very well could cover, but don't be a blind public fader

Use football reasons

 

[CHOPTALK]

Saints look like the least sucky team in the NFC South

 

[Greenbacks]

Come on Greenie

Bills very well could cover, but don't be a blind public fader

Use football reasons

You have your technique I have mine.
Football reasons???
Broncos should have never beaten the Chiefs.
It's not about looking at 2 teams and saying this 1 is better than that 1.
Lines/Odds play a factor in games. Public % is a factor imo.

 

[Greenbacks]

Steelers are horrible
Titans +2.5

Another horrible team laying points in the Patriots.
Commanders +3

Bengals come in as the biggest public play Sunday 66%.
Bills +2.5

Good luck

Bengals line dropped to 2
Big public play with the line dropping.
Double down on the Bills
Win or lose I love plays like this.

 

[skoda]

Numbers show 23-17..... Who wins? Of course no stats or numbers factor in Turnovers. Hope Bengals win toss and defer..... At home in prime time, the Bengals are 5-1 ATS. Give me the home team with another statement win.

 

[Avocado33]

You have your technique I have mine.
Football reasons???
Broncos should have never beaten the Chiefs.
It's not about looking at 2 teams and saying this 1 is better than that 1.
Lines/Odds play a factor in games. Public % is a factor imo.

Public wins just as much as the house does

Only time I use line movement as the primary factor in making a play is when there is a jarring amount of reverse line movement

 

[Avocado33]

Numbers show 23-17..... Who wins? Of course no stats or numbers factor in Turnovers. Hope Bengals win toss and defer..... At home in prime time, the Bengals are 5-1 ATS. Give me the home team with another statement win.

If this was a playoff game, then you gotta slam the Bengals in this situation

But this is the regular season. Bills still are dangerous in a spot like this

Big picture, the Bengals are the better team. But this is a tough spot

Probably a pass for me. Not sure who I will pick in my ATS spread thread

 

[brendanjack]

If this was a playoff game, then you gotta slam the Bengals in this situation

But this is the regular season. Bills still are dangerous in a spot like this

Big picture, the Bengals are the better team. But this is a tough spot

Probably a pass for me. Not sure who I will pick in my ATS spread thread

Bengals need w to stay in division Run. They never really had to look back last week , only way they lose is if Allen rushes for 75+. Don’t see how Buffalo can trade scores with bengals . Maybe a good over play

 

[Avocado33]

Bengals need w to stay in division Run. They never really had to look back last week , only way they lose is if Allen rushes for 75+. Don’t see how Buffalo can trade scores with bengals . Maybe a good over play

I think you could see Bills move the ball but struggle in the red zone

Bengals red zone defense (% of opponent drives resulting in TDs when in the red zone) is like 20+% better than any other team over the last couple seasons......absolutely absurd

Their d-coordinator's words: "Yards do not equal points"

They are the epitome of bend-don't-break, and they will take chances